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Feedburner and faking numbers : the real subscriber count
October 19th, 2008I am not going to make friends with that one for sure. As most of you know, I published an article last week about how you could artificially inflate or fake your Feedburner subscriber count and strongly advised you not to do it for obvious reasons. Now, do you think I would let you guys get away with it that easy? Of course not!
Wake up!
By exposing how easy it was to fake the subscriber count, I guess I wanted to say a little something to every advertiser out there: “Wake up!”. If you think this doesn’t apply to you because you’re not an advertiser you are wrong because the minute you comment on other blogs, you advertise your website. Advertising doesn’t mean paying money for an ad spot: to me it means having your brand displayed elsewhere. What I am about to say does apply to paid advertisement, but I’ll explain why it does apply to you also.
The main reason I think people are faking their RSS Subscriber count is to sell advertisements or reviews for more money. You know, some people will ask 25 or 30$ a month for an ad on their website simply because the feedburner chicklet shows 600 subscribers: it’s a common thing. Of course, you can check out some Alexa stats to make sure that number is real, but ShoeMoney has an Alexa Rank of 101,291 which makes me think Alexa is mostly crap. I also have another blog getting about 50 times more traffic than this blog with a crappy Alexa Rank as well. If we can’t really rely on Alexa Rank – and I’ve talked about it in the past – it all comes down to the Feedburner subscriber count, right? Well it pisses me off because a lot of bloggers fake it and there is NO, absolutely NO return on investment when advertising on their blogs. It’s important for every advertiser out there to know what the real numbers are and I’m about to show you how (mostly).
I hope advertisers will read this because it will help them maximize their return on investment (ROI). The same applies to you, the average blogger with not so much money to invest in advertisement. I want everybody to make the wisest choice when it comes to advertisement and trusting the Feedburner chicklet is probably the worst decision of all.
I don’t pay for advertising, how does this apply to me?
You comment on blogs, you advertise. Whether or not you pay for it, every single time your link appear on a blog, it’s called advertising. Now, why does it matter? When you comment on blogs showing 600 subscribers, you’re actually making that blog a little more powerful because you’re advertisers more reasons to think the blog is active with real readers.
Can’t we use comments as a metric?
Unfortunately no, a lot of popular blogs out there don’t receive a lot of comments even if they have an impressive REAL number of subscribers. Take John Cow for example, he doesn’t receive 50 comments on every post, but he has a pretty good subscriber count and pretty good traffic. It’s a good indication, but we can’t use it as a very good metric.
Google Reader is the key
Not many people know that with Google Reader, you can get the number of subscribers subscribed via Google Reader for a particular feed! It doesn’t show you the real numbers because it only displays the number of subscribers subscribed using Google Reader, but this can give us a pretty good estimate. Where is that feature? It’s hidden a little bit, but when you select a particular feed in your Google reader, you will see a little “Show details” link and this link is the key! As an example, here’s are feed details for The Net Fool:
How can this help me get the real numbers?
Let’s do some maths here and compare the Google Reader count with the Feedburner chicklet on some blogs I have in my Google Reader:
| Blog | Google Reader Count | Feedburner Count | Google Reader Market Share |
| The Net Fool | 139 | 685 | 20% |
| IM With Joe | 60 | 182 | 33% |
| John Cow | 510 | 10,128 | 5% |
| The University Kid | 217 | 1029 | 21% |
| Dosh Dosh | 6,712 | 19,249 | 35% |
| ShoeMoney | 1,094 | 24,999 | 4% |
| SlyVisions | 117 | 333 | 35% |
I tried to include some well known sub 1000 blogs as well as some bigger blogs like Dosh Dosh, ShoeMoney and John Cow. There’s only 7 blogs in the list as I only took some blogs from my Google Reader and didn’t do an extensive search for feeds. While some might say it’s not that much and we can’t really get any statistics out of that, just check your Google Reader and you’ll notice it’s around 25% for a lot of blogs. So you guys can basically do your own investigation, but you get the big picture and you know where I’m going with this.
What’s a “normal” ratio?
You’re the judge on that one, I don’t want to go out and say “Anybody under 10% is a cheater!”, I just want to raise a flag. I strongly encourage you to go through your list of feeds in Google Reader and check who looks suspicious. I unsubscribed to A LOT of feeds, especially in the MMO niche because of that and trust me, I know who’s faking it out there. I won’t point the finger at anyone as you’re all able to figure it out on your own.
I also want to point out that anybody with 300 Feedburner Subscribers and 15 Google Reader Subscribers is extremely suspicious. But as I said, you’re the judge.
Contests brings the ratio down
BS. While I agree contests are extremely popular and one of the requirements to get entries is to subscribe by email, I don’t think it would impact the count that much. I think most people will unsubscribe after the contest and subscribe to the feed via a reader if they like the blog. Even if people don’t unsubscribe, I’m not sure it can cause the ratio to go THAT down. The Net Fool ran a lot of contests and still has a pretty decent ratio. John Cow ran a lot of contests and has a pretty low ratio, but with 10,000 subscribers it really is a different game. We all know John Cow is getting traffic so there’s no question there.
I’m not saying ShoeMoney is cheating
Some might say, Shoe is at 5%, is he cheating? I don’t think so because if you check ShoeMoney, TechCrunch and big blogs like that the ratio is very low, mostly because the subscriptions come from so many different sources. For sub 1000 subscribers, it seems that the stats are pretty accurate. I also made some research online and it seems to be a well accepted fact that the Google Reader market Share is around 20-25% (That’s what it is on frogstr…)
Feedcompare.com
Another method Chris at chrisguthrie.net mentioned me is to actually have a look at feedcompare.com. It really is a nice website that let you have a look at how Feedburner feeds evolve into time. With it, you can actually see if there’s anything unusual on a feed if the feed in question has the “Awareness API” enabled. Mine isn’t enabled as I don’t like other websites and outside sources to have access to my feed without me knowing, but here is an example of a suspicious feed:
I’m not saying this guy is faking it, but going from 395 to 690 in two days is very suspicious…
You’re the judge
As I said, you’re the judge on this. I’m just saying you should be careful with the Feedburner count and don’t necessarily take it as a very good metric until you confirm the numbers by yourself. Google Reader is a good way to estimate the numbers and I honestly think 10-25% market share is a pretty accurate number. So, be careful when you buy advertisement, the Feedburner subscriber count shouldn’t always justify a higher price.
Prove me wrong
If you’re an honest blogger with 300 subscriptions and something like 15 Google Reader subscriptions It would be great if you could share some detailed stats. I would be more than happy to blog about it and say I was wrong! 
Share this
I hope you guys will share this. Not because I want some link love, but because I want the community to know. I personally think the Google Reader subscriber count is a much better metric simply because Google Reader is the most popular reader out there and it’s a lot more harder to fake.
49 Responses to “Feedburner and faking numbers : the real subscriber count”
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Hey Ben,
I really enjoyed reading your analysis, but just have to completely disagree with you.
You see, with all the contest bloggers hold each month, most of their (and my) subscribers are subscribed via Email.
Also, in the case of some blogs like John Chow, ShoeMoney, John Cow, etc. These get tons of new Email subscribers a day because of the free eBook/whatever they’re giving away.
But I do agree with you in a sense, because if a blog says it has 777 subscribers and only 3 are subscribed using Google Reader, then that is suspicious. But I’m just saying you can’t judge the authenticity of a site’s subs. by GReader.
Rajaie
Rajaie AlKoranis last blog post..Vrooom! Theme Released
@Rajaie: Thanks for adding some precisions to my analysis!
The free ebooks are usually given away with newsletter subscriptions which is a different process than feedburner, but I know what you’re saying!
You know, I tend to be very straight to the point with my thoughts and I think it draws controversy sometimes hehe. The point of the article as you mentionned is really to raise a flag on blogs with 777 subscribers and 3 subscribed through Google Reader
THanks for your comment buddy!
@Rajaie: Btw, you say most of you subscribers are email subscribers, but you still have a 25% ratio, which is the stats I’m getting on most honest blogs
Great post Dude. But disagree with you in blog comments. It is a good metric though. This is the proof that your readers really read your blog. Some might be subscribed in google reader.. But are you sure that they are really reading it? Some are subscribed there but not anymore opening their account there.
Husseins last blog post..Sunday Link Love #13
@Hussein: I agree, but I found out that commenting is extremely popular in the MMO niche but not necessarily in every niche out there. I have another blog (the blog I’m talking about in this article) and trust me even if I receive 50 times more traffic, I don’t have as much comments! It is a good metric of a blog activity, but it doesn’t tell a whole lot about the traffic unfortunately.
@Ben – anyway you got a point. But do you think bounce rate or visitor’s average time in the site is a good metric too?
Husseins last blog post..Sunday Link Love #13
Hummm it sure is, but I would say it’s more a “Quality metric” than a “traffic metric”. Subscribers count looked to be the perfect way to estimate a website popularity as well as quality, but it’s too easy to artificially inflate. The blogging community is in need of a better metric!
Number of comments means nothing. It’s a measure for blogger’s personality (at best).
For my feed Google Reader is 50-60%. But I have pretty much no email subscribers (=no lame contests
). Some serious bloggers are after email subscribers for business purposes. It’s not strange for them to have most of subscriber count in email and so it’s totally natural for their Google Reader percent to be low.
As said above – it’s strange when there is no Reader subscribers at all, but not when percent is simply low.
Rarsts last blog post..Universal Viewer – fast viewer for multiply types of media
I like the idea that the amount of comments one recieves on a blog is a good measure of the blogs popularity – but I agree with you in that we can’t use it as a metric. There are a lot of people who read the posts but don’t have anything to reply with, or would rather remain ‘just a reader’.
Dans last blog post..Strange Happenings
@Rarst: Thanks for sharing, but I still think a low percentage is weird
When looking at the average Reader, they usually don’t subscribe by email, there has to be an incentive for email subscriptions in most cases.
@Dan: Exactly and it depends a lot on the niche as well. Some niche won’t trigger the need to post a comment and some will, that’s the way it is!
@Ben
Well, if you tried to promote and encourage ONLY email subscription?
That’s exactly what some are doing.
Rarsts last blog post..Last free click from Google
Ben,
Great post! It is good to include your rivals as many times as possible to have the google spiders pick up this post in a search for these particular bloggers and blogs. This is not uncommon on the internet for people to “appear” bigger than they are. The majority of email subscriptions SUCK! I don’t care what they offer anymore.
There was a time when I didn’t feel like testing or searching for the proper answers, but that time has come and gone along with the subscriptions as well.
Informative as always, but it makes me wonder if this is not just a smear campaign designed to attract visitors. I love controversy my self.
Best regards,
Daniel Pyle
Daniel Pyles last blog post..Forum Marketing Using What You Know To Grow
@Rarst: True mate…I guess we both have a point here and either way it sucks
@Daniel Pyle: I don’t subscribe by email and probably never will. First I hate receiving email in my mailbox when I already receive hundred of them every day and second, why would I want 30 more emails everyday when I can put every subscription in a nice little place like Google Reader? Thanks for sharing!
I think you wasted your time with this post, alexa is just as easy manipulated as RSS so that’s out of the question, and you proved yourself that the Google technique is not very accurate.
Danny Coopers last blog post..A Lesson in Comment Etiquette
@Danny: Look who’s adding to the controversy
I guess the conclusion is we can’t rely on a lot of things except your own feeling, is it?
On blogs where overall numbers are high, but reader numbers are low, look at the blog….do they even have a reader subscribe link clearly marked?
Some shoot for only email subs.
Dennis Edells last blog post..Blog Revamp Update: Done – WOOHOO!
Ben, I won’t say you are wrong and please know that I appreciate you going out on a ledge and staking a position. Most people sit on the fence…that bothers me.
Anyway, I will say that is very niche dependent. You said that some niches get comments and others don’t.
I have a real estate investment website w/ 369 subscriptions. Most of these subscribers are email subscribers that show up in my Feedburner account.
Aweber has a way to link with Feedburner to include those email clients in your RSS counter.
In addition to this, the real estate investment niche is not as Rss savvy as the MMO niche, which I have discovered first hand. I have to educate my audience on the benefits of using RSS and most don’t even know what Google Reader is. They don’t comment very much, but they click adsense like they are crazy. LOL! Good for me.
My point is, you would check my google reader and I would be that you would find less than 10 people subscribed by Google Reader. Oh, and I am not giving away a free ebook. They just prefer to sign up through email.
But by your metric, you would think I was up to something crazy. I can promise you a I am not. Heck, it isn’t like 369 subscribers is even a lot, plus I have been building that for a while.
Nevertheless, thanks for stiring the pot and getting us to think.
It is appreciated.
@Ben Gut feeling wins outright.
@freddie Sounds like an awesome money maker.
Danny Coopers last blog post..A Lesson in Comment Etiquette
Humm very interesting Freddie. I didn’t know about the Aweber and Feedburner, that you could actually link them together.
Haha I feel you with your real estate niche and the readers not beging rss savy and not commenting much. I am experiencing the same on another blog of mine which is I would say in a science niche. Surprisingly, I do have a good Google Reader subscribers count even if they are not tech savy.
I appreciate your comment Freddie, opened my mind a little bit on how email subscriptions could really change that rss count.
You know, I think the point of the article was just to be careful with the feedburner count. I like to take position because most people don’t and if you don’t take position nobody takes action. It certainly is a little bit controversial, but that’s the only way for people to realize there’s something else out there than the rss count to evaluate a website!
Thanks for your comment buddy!
No problem, glad I could contribute something worthwhile to you. I definitely learn a lot from you, so please keep it coming and stay off the gate!
That is no place to live life!
I just learned something new today, as I had no clue you could cheat your feedburner subscriber number.
I have never really paid much attention to feed numbers, however I will start looking now, as I feel if you will lie on your subscriber count, the value of your content goes down.
Taras last blog post..Affiliate Program Options
Ben
You have made a damned good analysis and I’m not too sure if I could do anything of this kind. Not too repeat what the rest of the commenters have said earlier which I have to agree, there was once upon a time someone actually wrote an unpaid review of my blog and was wondering to himself how in the first place I could get so many comments with my low subscribers. Come to think of it, I should have inflated my subscribers no. LOL….
Apparently, he had about 4 comments per post so he made an assumption that with 50 comments or more I should have something like 1000 subscribers. So my point is we can’t never use comment as a metric to measure the realistic no. of subscribers. It just doesn’t work that way.
Yan
Hi Ben,
I think what we are all learning… At least what I am learning is that there seems to be very few hard and fast rules for the blogosphere. Luck plays a huge part in it and each niche has different rules they need to play by.
Good, thought provoking, insightful stuff nontheless.
Cheers,
Jeremy
Jeremy Days last blog post..Surround Yourself With the Best: Powell Endorses Obama
@Freddie: Thanks mate!
@Tara: Absolutely! I mean there’s no reason to go completely crazy, but I think it’s good to know.
@Yan: Haha that’s funny! I also get a lot of comments in here and don’t have an impressive amount of subscribers…Maybe I should inflate it
This is a good example of why comments can’t be used as a very good metric for traffic/subscription count. It is a good metric of content quality or how many friends a blogger has but we can’t really take that metric further.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts Yan!
@Ben: I think I have two subscribers…
Clog Moneys last blog post..A typical day in the life of.
5 actually in Google Reader
Hey Ben, thanks for the mention about FeedCompare. Yah, you guys and gals should definitely try looking at that site and testing bloggers feeds.
I was going to write a post “outing” a lot of bloggers that clearly inflate their numbers (i.e. 500 subscriber jump in a day) but I was only able to find about 3 fairly well known bloggers. I would have preferred to have a lot more so I could spread the “love” around hah hah.
In any case nice post.
Chris Guthries last blog post..Sunday Link Love v10
No worries Chris! I did the same thing and identified some bloggers, but I’m not sure I would be able to go public and point the finger at specific bloggers!
HI Ben, Nice finding and research but you can even inflate comments on your blog..pay 10 users to post intelligent comments on your site…so where does the commenst metrics go….
ZKs last blog post..Awesome Thanksgiving Contest Giveaways
@Jeremy: Thanks for your comment mate! YOu are right when you talk about specific rules for every niche…kind of funny
@ZK: Finally a Gravatar for you!
I didn’t think about paying people, but you’re right you can easily by commentators on DigitalPoint or any other forum like that!
I dunno, perhaps they would call me naive but I actually enjoy watching my numbers grow naturally…what a rush!
Dennis Edells last blog post..Blog Revamp Update: Done – WOOHOO!
+1 for Dennis on that one.
Woohoo! How many more to win?
Dennis Edells last blog post..Blog Revamp Update: Done – WOOHOO!
Ahaha we’ll see when I make enough money to give away free stuff all over the place
Hi Ben,
Hey! I see you changed from a frog to a prince!
I have a question not related to this post. I would like to email you a question about placing an ad. Can you send me an email at adele@adeleart.com. I can’t find anyway to to this so am asking here. Thanks.
haha I really I guess it’s a way of seeing things
I’m sending the email right away…
When did a frog turn into a prince? Who kissed the frog?
Yan
Blog for Beginnerss last blog post..A – Z Blogging Guide for Beginners
haha it happened last night…I’ll leave you in suspense
I am still trying to figure out if it hurts or helps to do the feedburner thing on a new site. I also feel that a fake FB number is as useful as a fake alexa number, the metrics for either one are easily faked and only a fool would use them as a legit benchmark. I maintain one site that has about 50 feeds, the top with 832,000 users for our homepage alone, and I know that because of who they are, the feeds get indexed hourly by Google and Yahoo. For a small site that is ambitious but if it helps as part of an overall SEO strategy, I am not sure. The site I maintain? http://www.Variety.com the site I am trying to launch? http://www.GroupBuyCity.com
I hear so much debate, but so little input.
Very very interesting. I had no idea GReader showed this little gem! I took a look at my top blogs and they all fall into 30% google share from the actual feedburner count so I would agree that 20-40% would probably be legit.
Thanks for great information…
Narmadi I type approvals last blog post..Pepperjam Network Publisher Referral Program News
Very interesting facts. In fact, I used to look into the Google Reader count once in while and there are times when it has shown single digit numbers for some of the prolific blogs
Blogging Idol 2 is on the way and let’s see who all will get their RSS subscribers shoot up in no time
God alone knows the tricks behind!
Cheers,
Ajith
Yeah I also think that Google Reader is a much better metric. Thanks for posting! I will share this.
I’ve got only 5-10 readers subscribed via Google Reader, it’s hard to get that count go higher because not a lot of Filipinos know about Google Reader, especially the young ones, the “Teens”
Kevin Paquets last blog post..Gadget Advisor
Very detailed and excellent post.
Really enjoyed reading it.
Keral Patels last blog post..Automatic Email Marketing
Though it was an interesting read, your conclusion that 777 readers and 3 google reader subscribers is a bad idea.
I can provide you stats on this anytime to prove your conclusion wrong
TheAnands last blog post..Build a Niche Blog Challenge – Step 1
These facts are great! Do post some quotes too. I am looking for some quotes or sayings to be placed on my site.
I agree completely! It's nice to have backlinks to your blogs and even your site – I'm sure it helps a ton!
Thanks for the insight!
Helzehen of ( http://www.anime-eater.com )
Great post. You're right Ben, it's so impossible to gain that numbers in two days. I'm gonna share this on Facebook .